ABPW10 PGTW 071430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071430Z-080600ZFEB2025// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 170.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.3S 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 92P WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CONVECTION STREAMING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 071042Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE REVEALS THE ELONGATED LLC TO HAVE A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 35-40 KNOTS, STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26 C. TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED TO BE UNLIKELY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE WEAK MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PORTRAYING THE CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO ELONGATE WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 15P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.7S 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070947Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HAS ATTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30-35 KNOTS, STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY 15P TO BRIEFLY SUSTAIN 35 KNOTS UNTIL ELONGATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(2) AS A LOW.// NNNN

Local Volcanic Warnings

TAAL VOLCANO

Latest of ionospheric total electron content
Latest of ionospheric total electron content Latest of ionospheric total electron content

MAYON VOLCANO

Latest of ionospheric total electron content
Latest of ionospheric total electron content Latest of ionospheric total electron content

MT PINATUBO

Latest of ionospheric total electron content
Latest of ionospheric total electron content Latest of ionospheric total electron content

Active Volcano Thermal Anomalies and Cloud / ASL Monitoring

Live CCTV 13.5 km near Taal Volcano (right side) Click "HERE" Credits to "kaetemi" for permission to use

Resource for Volcanic and Thermal Imagery, logs and data, courtesy of: "MIROVA"

Volcano Active Monitoring Courtesy of NOAA/CIMSS and PhiVolcs

BACK