ABPW10 PGTW 071430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/071430Z-080600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.7S 170.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.3S 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS 92P WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND
CONVECTION STREAMING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 071042Z ASCAT METOP-C
IMAGE REVEALS THE ELONGATED LLC TO HAVE A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 35-40
KNOTS, STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26 C. TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM IS
ANALYZED TO BE UNLIKELY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
WEAK MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PORTRAYING THE CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO
ELONGATE WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) ON A
SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 15P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.7S 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070947Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HAS ATTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30-35 KNOTS, STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 25-26 C.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY 15P TO BRIEFLY SUSTAIN 35
KNOTS UNTIL ELONGATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ)
AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(2) AS A LOW.//
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