ABPW10 PGTW 290600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJAN2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJAN2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 173.7E, APPROXIMATELY 413 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM HAS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF 98P WITH ECENS KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF WHILE GEFS SHOWS IT TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN