ABPW10 PGTW 291800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291800Z-300600ZJAN2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZJAN2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE CIRCULATION IS COVERED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30- 31 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP 98P, HOWEVER GFS INDICATES QUICK FORMATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL DEVELOP. 98P IS DEPICTED TO TAKE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN