Tropical Cyclone Advisories and Forecast

Time and Date in UTZ:

151200

151200Z-160600ZMAR2026

TYPHOON WARNINGS for East Asian and Western Pacific:

(180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

Summary 1:

NONE.

Summary 2:

NONE.

Summary 3:

NONE.

TYPHOON WARNINGS for U.S West to East Pacific:

(WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

Summary 1:

NONE.

Summary 2:

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION, PREDOMINATELY THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 151014Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, 10-15 KTS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, WHILE AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 20 KTS REMAINS DISLOCATED 150 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR 96P ARE MOSTLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

Summary 3:

NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)

Cyclone Forecast

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Guidance and Ensembles

JMA TC FORECAST (for next 24 hrs click: HERE for next 48 hrs click: HERE)

TROPICAL CYCLONE Advisory "if active" Courtesy of: Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Tropical Tidbits, Japan Meteorological Agency, Weathernerds.org and Rosentiel school of marine and atmospheric science

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