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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Eight, near the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued 
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued 
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)

...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 16
 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -48.5
 with movement W at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 162140
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024
 
...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 48.5W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.5 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn 
toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or 
so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024  

871 
WTNT22 KNHC 162032
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  48.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  48.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  48.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N  49.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N  49.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N  48.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.3N  48.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N  47.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.6N  46.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N  44.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N  43.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N  48.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024  

281 
WTNT42 KNHC 162033
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Gordon is producing only a few sporadic bursts of deep convection, 
mainly over the southern and eastern portion of its circulation.  
The vertical wind shear does not appear to be very strong at this 
time, as evidenced by the relatively slow motions of the cirrus 
clouds over the system.  Since the cyclone is situated over a 
warm ocean, the suppression of convection is probably due to a 
stable air mass and/or dry air.  The advisory intensity is held at 
30 kt in accordance with an objective estimate of 32 kt from 
UW-CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number of 30 kt 
from TAFB.

Gordon continues to move slowly westward with a current motion 
estimate of 270/5 kt.  A high pressure area that was north of the 
system over the past couple of days is shifting westward, and being 
replaced by a mid-level trough within the next day or two.  Also, 
there is a frontal cyclone located about 10 degrees to the north of 
Gordon.  This feature, along with the trough, should cause the 
tropical cyclone to turn northward and north-northeastward during 
the next couple of days.  Although Gordon is expected to at least 
briefly  interact with the frontal wave, the global model guidance 
indicates that it will retain its identity and move farther 
north-northeastward over the Atlantic during the forecast period.
The official forecast is shifted a little more to the east of the 
previous NHC prediction and is close to the corrected model 
consensus, HCCA.

Output from the statistical-dynamical SHIPS models shows some 
increase in the low- to mid-level relative humidity and also 
suggests some increase in instability during the forecast period.  
The SHIPS output also shows generally low to moderate vertical 
shear for the next few days.  The official forecast shows some 
restrengthening after 48 hours, but not as much of an intensity 
increase as called for by the SHIPS/LGEM predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 19.0N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 19.2N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 19.7N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 20.3N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 21.3N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 22.8N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 24.6N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 27.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 29.0N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                              

985 
FONT12 KNHC 162032
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024               
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics

Tropical Depression Gordon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:33:06 GMT

Tropical Depression Gordon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:23:10 GMT

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...REFER TO LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 16
 the center of Eight was located near 33.9, -78.8
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 162036
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
 
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...REFER TO LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
33.9 North, longitude 78.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or so, and the low will move inland
across the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday.
 
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued
weakening is expected during the next day or so, and the low is
forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations 
is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are expected to diminish this evening along the
coast of North Carolina.
 
STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated along portions of the
southeastern North Carolina coast and will begin to subside after
the next high tide cycle. Refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: The system will bring an additional 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall, with isolated totals of 10 inches, across portions of
southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across northern South
Carolina and the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated totals near 8 inches, particularly in the
North Carolina Blue Ridge, are possible through Tuesday. Over
southeast Virginia and the Virginia Blue Ridge, expect 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, tonight through Wednesday.
This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor
river flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this 
system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across
eastern North Carolina.
 
SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States through tonight. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For more information, see products from your 
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 162036
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  78.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 120SE 120SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  78.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  78.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.4N  79.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.9N  80.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N  78.8W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED 
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 162037
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
 
Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface 
circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming 
the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current 
observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient 
remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface 
observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast 
or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed 
to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to 
become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts 
today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of 
southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along 
the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving 
onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading 
farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds 
have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.
 
The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion 
will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and 
Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. 
Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For 
more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.
 
Since the system is no longer producing sustained
tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final
NHC advisory on the system.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Additional considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river 
flooding is possible across southern North Carolina and northeast 
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated 
flash and urban flooding for the southern Mid-Atlantic region and 
southern Appalachians through Wednesday.
 
2. Gusty winds will continue along portions of the coasts of South
Carolina and North Carolina into this evening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 33.9N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 34.4N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1800Z 34.9N  80.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 162036
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024               
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FAYETTEVILLE   34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 37   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:35:21 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 21:35:21 GMT

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  1111 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  443 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  522 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161729
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 16 Sep 2024 22:05:33 GMT